COVID-19 Positivity Rates Where July Bar Exams Will Be Administered
With the July 2020 bar exam less than three weeks ago, jurisdictions are still canceling, postponing, and modifying this highest of high-stakes exam. Just today, Kentucky announced that it was scrapping its original July exam as well as its additional exam administration scheduled for Sept. 30 and Oct. 1. Instead, Kentucky announced that it would be administering the NCBE’s remote examination on Oct. 5-6, which consists of 100 multiple-choice questions, three MEE questions, and one MPT.
Yesterday, Pennsylvania cancelled its September bar exam, which it scheduled after postponing the July exam, and announced the administration of a three-day remote examination on Oct. 5-7.
Just this month alone—and we’re only nine days into it—these states, among others, have moved or modified their bar exams:
Arizona (scheduled an additional remote exam on Oct. 5-6)
Florida (cancelled July exam, and scheduled a remote exam on Aug. 19)
Massachusetts (cancelled Fall exam, and scheduled a remote exam on Oct. 5-6)
Tennessee (cancelled July exam, proceeding with a previously announced in-person exam on Sept. 30 and Oct. 1)
Texas (cancelled July exam, and scheduled an in-person Fall exam on Sept. 9-10 as well as an additional remote exam on Oct. 5-6)
In all likelihood, even with the July bar exam less than three weeks away, more states will continue to reassess their ability to administer their originally scheduled July exam—or even a subsequently scheduled Fall exam—in a manner that will keep their examinees, proctors, and exam officials safe.
As of now—and I emphasize “now” since information seems to be changing more often than daily—24 jurisdictions, by my count, are still planning to administer a July 2020 bar exam. That’s 22 states in addition to Northern Mariana Islands and Puerto Rico. In other words, 32 jurisdictions that the NCBE provides statistics for have cancelled their July 2020 exam, with some of the largest states of examinees, like New York, California, Texas, and Florida, saying that it’s just not prudent to subject individuals to an in-person exam at the end of the month.
Based on NCBE statistics, a total of 46,370 first-time and repeat examinees took the July 2019 bar exam in all jurisdictions. Based on the 24 jurisdictions currently planning to administer the July 2020 bar exam, these jurisdictions represented a total of 7,755 examinees on last year’s July exam. This means that it's likely that less than 17% of the number of the examinees who took last year’s July exam will take this July’s exam. To put it another way, there will likely be about 38,000 fewer examinees this July than last July. (Also, for comparison, the total number of July 2020 examinees will likely be less than the total number of February 2019 examinees, which was 21,935. In fact, the lowest number of examinees on a February examination over the past 10 years during which the NCBE has published statistics was 2009, when 18,868 examinees took the exam.)
In addition to examinee count, I also wanted to examine the reach and severity of COVID-19 in these jurisdictions, particularly looking at the percentage of tests that are positive (positivity rate) since some may argue that an increase in new cases is simply the result of an increase in testing.
The Johns Hopkins University & Medicine’s Coronavirus Resource Center tracks COVID-19 data for 22 of the 24 jurisdictions proceeding with a July exam. It does not provide data for Northern Mariana Islands or Puerto Rico.
Of these 22 jurisdictions, 16 of them show an increase in their 7-day moving average rate of positivity. (Due to fluctuations in daily reporting, testing rates are presented as 7-day rolling averages.) Positivity rates can indicate if an increase in cases is simply the result of expanded testing or if it signals increased transmission of the virus. Positivity rates also reveal whether a state’s testing capacity is sufficient. Ideally, a state should be meeting or exceeding the recommended positivity rate, which the World Health Organization has set at 5%. A positivity rate over 5% indicates a state may only be testing the sickest patients who seek out medical care, and are not casting a wide enough net to identify milder cases and track outbreaks.
So it appears that the majority of states currently going forward with a July exam have sustained increases of positive COVID-19 cases.
