The 2024 MBE Mean Increase: A Small Shift with Big Implications

In a recent Bar Examiner article, NCBE’s Chief Psychometrician, Dr. Joanne Kane, analyzed the July 2024 MBE scores and found something worth discussing: a 1.3-point increase in the national mean from July 2023 (140.5) to July 2024 (141.8).

At first glance, a 1.3-point jump might seem minor. But in the world of standardized testing—where trends often move incrementally—it’s both statistically and substantively significant. To put it in perspective, Dr. Kane’s analysis suggests that a shift of just one scaled score point can translate into a 2% increase in the national pass rate. With a 1.3-point increase, we’re looking at an estimated 3% rise in the national pass rate. That’s real-world impact.

Why Did MBE Scores Rise?

Dr. Kane identifies several potential factors influencing the score increase:

• First-Time vs. Repeat Test-Takers: First-time takers consistently score higher than repeaters, and the proportion of first-time takers affects overall averages.

  
  

• Law School Applicant Trends: The law school applicant spike in 2021 may have led to a particularly strong class of bar takers in 2024.

  
  

• MPRE Performance: Trends in MPRE scores have historically correlated with bar exam performance, providing a leading indicator of future results.

What This Means for the Future

While it’s tempting to predict continued score increases, history tells us to be cautious. External factors—such as changes in LSAT applicant pools, law school admissions policies, and upcoming NextGen Bar Exam implementations—introduce complexity into forecasting future scores. Dr. Kane points out that as more alternative licensure pathways emerge, MBE scores could either rise or fall, depending on which groups opt out of the traditional bar exam.

For now, one thing remains true: bar passage remains highly dependent on preparation, strategy, and execution. While national statistics provide insights, individual success is still a function of dedicated study and practice.

Read the full Bar Examiner article here.